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江戸の会議 (Edo no Kaigi)

The War Council at Edo

Ieyasu had to make his victory look inevitable before he had won a single battle.

The War Council at Edo

He had 56,000 soldiers behind him and enemies forming in front. Tokugawa Ieyasu rode into Edo on August 10, 1600, having wheeled away from his march northeast toward Aizu. News was reaching him: while he had been leading Japan's largest army toward Uesugi Kagekatsu, Ishida Mitsunari was exploiting his absence, drawing the western lords into coalition. The moment Ieyasu had feared — or perhaps engineered — had arrived.

He had perhaps nineteen days in Edo before he would move again. What he needed was not more troops. He needed decisions — the private, terrifying commitments of lords who had family members held as hostages in Osaka Castle (Osaka-jo). Every man he summoned knew the calculation: pledge to Ieyasu, and your son inside those walls may die. Stay silent, and you may die anyway when Ieyasu wins. The silence that reportedly greeted his first appeals reflected this impossible arithmetic.

So he made winning look certain. The kaigi (kaigi) — the councils at Edo Castle — were theater as much as logistics. Ieyasu received visitors, distributed rewards, offered titles. He made each pledge feel like a rational business decision rather than a leap of faith. The genius was not military. It was psychological: every lord who committed made it slightly more true that the others should commit. The coalition became self-reinforcing.

Fukushima Masanori was among the earliest and most committed. His hatred of Mitsunari was personal and long-standing — Mitsunari had filed damaging reports on the generals' performance in Korea, and in 1598 Fukushima had joined a plot to kill him. He was not joining Ieyasu's side. He was joining the anti-Mitsunari side, which happened to be the same thing.

Others calculated more carefully. The Hosokawa clan, the Kuroda clan, Hachisuka Iemasa — domain by domain, the Eastern Army took shape not on a battlefield but in rooms, over tea and correspondence. By the time Ieyasu marched west in early September, the coalition had been assembled through the performance of inevitability. The Battle of Sekigahara (Sekigahara no Tatakai) would not take place until October 21. But in a real sense, it was decided here, in Edo, three weeks before the army moved.